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Commercial Planning

Demand Forecasting

Assessing the demand for railway stations and services is a key element of the planning function. Our knowledge of macro- and micro-economic conditions, and the various impacts on railway demand, enables us to provide accurate and useful input into projects being considered by companies in the industry.

• Examples: Millhouses Station Feasibility Study, South Yorkshire PTE; Demand Forecasting to assist a bidder for the PRESTIGE project for ticketing services for London Transport

Demand Modelling

The Consultancy has a wide range of experience in using a variety of models to underpin the demand forecasting process; we have particular expertise in network modelling. However, we are also frequent users of spreadsheet methods, and have developed our own logit and gravity model techniques to provide the quick results required in the new railway environment.

• Examples: Demand Forecasting using the Railplan network model, for London Transport, and our own GCOST™ model for the Allerton interchange project, for Merseytravel.

Demand Analysis

Considerable analytical work is often required to underpin decisions about expensive railway development schemes, and data is needed to be assembled from a variety of different sources, before management decisions are made. We have that analytical expertise.

• Example: Analysis to underpin the proposed North-South tram route, from Elephant & Castle to King's Cross, in Central London.

Appraisals and Franchise Assessments

By assembling various data on business performance, and using our skills in estimating the impacts of service, management and cost changes to a rail system, we can provide both financial and wider economic appraisals for railway companies, either in relation to specific projects, or for bids for entire businesses. Whilst the private sector is most interested in financial returns, Governments are increasingly interested in environmental and social objectives, and the development of appraisal methods which will enable these to be taken into account.

• Examples: Appraisal of Bletchley station upgrade; development of appraisal methodology for GMPTE; financial case prepared for a bidder for the Island Line franchise.

Rail Passenger Partnership (RPP) Funding Bids

Many small schemes within the national rail network can now be progressed through the RPP process.

• Example: RPP application in respect of the proposed station at Carr Mill, for Merseytravel.

Station Planning

Stations are the first point of access of passengers to the railway system. Whether through suggesting good design, or by using simulations, we have experience in the safe and cost-effective design of stations, and ensuring that they are fit for purpose.

• Example: Operability study of St Pancras CTRL platforms for L B Camden.

Database Construction

With our strong analytical capability and our deep understanding of railways, we are able to specify the data requirements and structure of databases holding railway planning and commercial information.

• Example: The NACHs database designed to hold information on the impact on passengers of operational incidents, London Underground

Access Planning

Train operators need access rights to run on the British national rail network, but these are not necessarily the same as shown in the timetable, and proposed services may need enhanced access rights. Where operators' access rights cannot be fulfilled (e.g. during engineering possessions), Railtrack may be liable for performance payments, and this can have a significant impact on project planning and appraisal.

• Examples: Data entry and operation of the Access Rights Database & Validator database, for Railtrack; assessment of performance payments for Chiltern's Evergreen project.

Fares Policy

The maximisation of profit is fundamentally dependent upon the relationship between income and costs, and the structure and levels of pricing are therefore critical. Using elasticities and income data, the Consultancy is able to provide direct advice as to the options available, and their impacts.

• Examples: Economic analysis of fares policy intervention to support MTRC's negotiating position with LegCo, Hong Kong; National Railcard study, for the Rail Passengers' Council/Railfuture

© The Railway Consultancy Ltd, Tel +44 (0)20 8676 0395, Fax +44 (0)20 8778 7439
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Last Modified: Monday, June 25, 2007